On the year comparison chart on your Summary page you will see the projected year end value for the selected display value along with a dotted line showing the path required to achieve that target:
Previous years’ trends vs current trend
The evolution of this piece of functionality has taken it initially from being based purely on the current trajectory of your values, through being based purely on previous years’ trends to now being an adjustable combination of the two.
If you have been logging data to Strava over numerous years and this year is no different that the past then chances are your activity will follow a similar pattern this year. So typically, in the northern hemisphere, the amount of activity follows an S curve with the steepest increase of activity during the summer with it tapering off through the winter. But lots of people are striving to improve on previous years resulting in the previous years’ trends having less relevance. So we have the mixer option below the chart:
Defaulting to a 50/50 split between previous years’ trends and your last 30 days. Dragging the slider fully to the left weights the projection to be purely based on previous years’ trends. Sliding to the right initially weights the projection towards the recent trend using the last 30 days of data. Slide it further still to the right and the number of previous days reduces from 30 down to a minimum of 7:
As you slide it you’ll see the projected value and line adjust accordingly so hopefully you can find the best fit for your expected progress for the rest of the year.